There was very little news of note yesterday for the currency markets, as the Pound drifted slightly lower again against both the Euro and US Dollar, to continue the pattern of recent days.
Today we have crucial inflation figures released at 9.30am. June’s CPI figures are expected to be around 1.6%, anything lower being likely to hurt the Pound, as inflation is already running below the Bank of England’s 2% target rate. Lower inflation makes the Bank less likely to increase interest rates, which markets are expecting later this year, one of the main factors which have been keeping the Pound strong in recent weeks.
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney also gives a speech at 10am, and his frank style normally has an immediate impact on exchange rates.
Later on today sees retail sales in the USA at 1.30pm, with expectations of 0.6% growth in the year to May. Last week the Federal Reserve said it would halt its stimulus programme if the economy continued to improve, so any positive US data could see the Dollar gain ground, making sending money to the USA more expensive after the recent highs we have seen.
Lastly we also have New Zealand inflation this evening – so a busy day all round and worth keeping in touch with us at Currency Index if you have a transaction coming up for buying or selling any currencies.