In the last few years, driven by rising labor costs, the need for diversification, and the government’s focus shifting from labor-intensive sectors to high-tech industries, Chinese as well as foreign firms operating in China have slowly shifted their manufacturing activities to Southeast Asia, especially Vietnam.
In addition to these factors, the escalating trade war between the US and China that has already seen additional duties being imposed on US$50 billion worth of goods, accelerated the trend of foreign investors realigning their supply chains.
Routing goods through Vietnam
Due to its geographic proximity, lower wages, skilled labor, trade agreements, and regional connectivity, Vietnam has emerged as one of the most preferred alternatives for manufacturers. The Vietnamese government had anticipated that due to higher tariffs on Chinese products, the manufacturers may try to reroute goods through Vietnam in the short term to maintain exports.
Hence, the government has taken several steps to ensure the origin of imported and exported products. For example, Decree No. 31/2018/ND-CP which is in effect since March 2018, supplements new regulations related to the origin of exported goods and imported goods. Due to product origin issues, the US government in March 2018 hiked tariffs on steel products from Vietnam that originated from China.
This proves that Chinese exporters may use Vietnam to reroute goods in the short term, but it is not recommended. Rather than doing so, they should focus on other long-term risk mitigating strategies to minimize their exposure to the ongoing trade disputes.
This text is part of a more complete analysis available for free.
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