ECONOMIC OVERVIEW FOR 2019 – LATIN AMERICA
Based on a private report prepared by our International Area for our Investment Fund clients we share some highlights about the Economic Overview for 2019 – Latin America.
After several years of lackluster economic growth in Latin America, and with global growth hitting a cyclical bottom in 2016, economic prospects have been steadily improving since then. Latin America GDP growth is expected to be +1.9pts for 2018 (while projected growth at the beginning of the year was at +2.5pts). Analysts foresee at this point a GDP growth for 2019 of +2.6pts, though doubts remains as if next year economic growth will roll out as forecasted.
Among the risks to Latin America region economic recovery is the rise of protectionist policies, the prospect of stoking trade wars and the political noise from a heavy electoral cycle and corruption scandals.
Mexico, in the wake of the new president landslide victory, economic sentiment has been riding high, while NAFTA deal calmed investors momentarily.
Central America is reasonably stable as Costa Rica demand continues to increase with new business and leisure development.
In South America, tough reforms and fiscal consolidation in an election year will weigh in Argentina outlook in 2019, which economy is now officially in recession. In Brazil, a market-friendly outcome to October’s election remains critical to ensuring a sustainable recovery. In Colombia, economic recovery is taking longer than expected, with new government focusing in fiscal, investments and security fronts.